Transparency

How we count signals.

Most platforms only show their winners. We publish an evaluated sample — hit rate, median return, worst performer — because a promise without receipts is marketing.

Last 30 days (tracking is younger than 90 days)

168 signals scored

Scores signals at least 6h old that still have $20K+ liquidity; the other 1,092 tracked signals are not scored, including tokens that have since lost their liquidity. It is not the share of all signals that doubled.

1260 distinct priced catches; 622 mature token quotes unavailable and 0 delayed. Oldest quote observed 2026-10-29 03:59:07 UTC.

Hit 2×+

10%

Hit 5×+

Median

0.45×

Mean

1.10×

Best

23.1×

Worst

0.01×

By type

New pairsn=65 · hit 14% · median 0.63× · best 23.1×

Volume anomaliesn=53 · hit 6% · median 0.31× · best 3.94×

Mega surgesn=27 · hit 11% · median 0.28× · best 3.69×

Whale buysn=20 · hit 0% · median 0.61× · best 1.19×

Wallet clustersn=2 · hit 0% · median 0.42× · best 0.79×

Graduationsn=1 · hit 100% · median 2.39× · best 2.39×

Scoring

What counts as a scored signal

Signal types

New pairs, volume anomalies, mega surges, whale buys, and wallet clusters qualify only when a valid entry price was recorded with the signal. Sells and news events are excluded.

Dedupe

First catch per token and signal type wins. If a token triggers three volume anomalies in the same week, only the earliest entry price counts. No cherry-picking the best entry.

Liquidity floor

Pairs with less than $20K of current liquidity are excluded because a quoted price may not be executable. Missing and dead-token outcomes remain unevaluated; excluding them can overstate performance.

Age floor

Signals younger than 6 hours are excluded. Too soon to know; a pair minted minutes ago isn't a scored outcome.

Return source

Current price from DexScreener divided by the price_usd we stored when the signal fired. This is a current quote comparison, not realized P&L, an all-time high, or a historical peak. Fees and slippage are excluded.

Hit definition

A signal “hit” if its current return is ≥ 2×. A strong hit is ≥ 5×. Median return is the 50th-percentile multiple — a much harder number to fake than “we caught a 100×.”

Launch health

How launch health is scored

For pump.fun launches we read the earliest trades on the bonding curve, each early buyer's funding and balance, and the dev wallet. The verdict is the worst result among the rules below. No flags means none of the rules fired; it is not a safety rating. A check we could not complete is never counted as no flags: with nothing worse found, the badge says Unknown. Thresholds are a starting point and are being calibrated against outcomes (rules version 3).

Linked: share of supply still held by early buyers funded by the same wallet (exchange withdrawals do not count; the dev funding a buyer does)

Caution: over 15% · Danger: over 30%

Fresh-wallet farm: fresh wallets funded by one source that still hold a real balance, with both the count and the share clearing the line

Caution: 5+ wallets holding 10%+ · Danger: 8+ wallets holding 20%+

Dev's own launch buy, as a share of total supply

Caution: over 15% · Danger: over 40%

Dev selling before the token graduates, including tokens moved to other wallets that then sold

Caution: sold over 50% of their buy · Danger: sold everything within 30 minutes of launch

Supply still held by the biggest early buyers

Caution: over 35% · Danger: over 50%

Creator record

Caution: 10+ launches in 7 days and none ever graduated · Danger: a previously rugged token (RugCheck), when available

Shown, not scored

These are listed on the token page because they say who holds supply. They do not change the verdict: when we checked earlier outcomes, launches with heavy launch-block buying rugged less often within 24 hours than launches without it. Heavy early buying still means a few wallets can move the price.

Bundled: share of supply bought in the same block as the launch by wallets other than the dev

Shown: over 15%

Sniped: share bought in the launch block and the next few blocks (3 by default, about a second and a half)

Shown: over 25%

Limits: the funding check only sees early buyers whose wallet is fresh (under 50 transactions), because that is where funding links can be traced on free data. There is no full top-10 holder share on free data, so holder concentration covers the biggest early buyers. Pump.fun's own mayhem-mode vault is excluded. Tokens older than 30 days or above a $50M market cap are outside launch health. This is a risk read about on-chain facts, not a statement about anyone's intentions.

Launch health · does it work?

Of the 31 tokens we marked Danger in the last 30 days, 45% rugged within 24 hours, against 16% of the 104 with no flags.

Danger tokens rugged 2.8x as often as tokens with no flags.

What counts as a rug: market cap down 90% or more from the analysis within 24 hours, or liquidity under $1,000 at 24 hours for a token that graduated, or the dev sold everything before the token graduated. Tokens we could not follow are not counted as rugs.

Discipline

What we don't do

We don't delete losing signals from the database.
We don't pick the highest-return moment post-hoc — current price only.
Losing tokens still count when a valid quote and at least $20K liquidity are available. Missing and low-liquidity outcomes are disclosed as excluded coverage.
We don't show P&L as if you could have bought at the exact signal price with infinite liquidity. It's a reference point, not a trade.

See the current leaderboard of winners and the full scoreboard.

View hits